• Class: Swiss Electricity Sector Model
  • Analytical approach: Bottom-up
  • Purpose: Scenario analysis
  • Methodology: Cost optimization and Modellin
  • Deterministic and Monte Carlo
  • Regions: Switzerland as a whole and 2222 municipalities
  • Sectors: Electricity
  • Demand sectors:
  • Generation technologies:
  • Energy carriers:
  • Time horizon: 2035 and 2050
  • Time resolution:

EXploration of PAtterns in Near-optimal Energy ScEnarios (EXPANSE)

EXPANSE (EXploration of PAtterns in Near-optimal Energy ScEnarios) has the structure of a bottom-up, technology-rich, cost optimization model of the Swiss electricity sector with perfect foresight. In addition, EXPANSE has three state-of-the-art features. First, EXPANSE quantifies the cost-optimal model solution as well as uses Modelling to Generate Alternatives technique (MGA) to systematically explore large ensembles of near-optimal solutions. These near-optimal solutions have total system costs that are just a little higher than the costs of the cost-optimal solution, but these near-optimal solutions can have other unmodeled advantages in terms of environmental impacts or feasibility for real-world implementation. Second, Monte Carlo technique is used to quantify the parametric uncertainty in EXPANSE in order to illuminate energy decisions that are robust in face of deep uncertainties. Third, EXPANSE model is spatially resolved at the level of 2222 Swiss municipalities and thus allows sub-national modelling of the Swiss electricity system.


  • Berntsen P., E. Trutnevyte (2017). Ensuring the diversity of national energy scenarios: bottom-up energy system model with Modeling to Generate Alternatives. Energy 126, 886-898.
  • DeCarolis J., H. Daly, P. Dodds, I. Keppo, G. N. F. Li, W. McDowall, S. Pye, N. Strachan, E. Trutnevyte, W. Usher, M. Winning, S. Yeh, M. Zeyringer (2017). Formalizing best practice for energy system optimization modelling. Applied Energy 194, 184-198.
  • Trutnevyte E. (2016). Does cost optimization approximate the real-world energy transition? Energy 106, 182-193.
  • Trutnevyte E. (2013). EXPANSE methodology for evaluating the economic potential of renewable energy from an energy mix perspective. Applied Energy 111, 593-601.
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